| UK house price inflation accelerates |
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| Monday, 01 January 2007 | |
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The UK’s year-on-year house price inflation was 12.1% in June, the highest in since May 2005, suggesting that interest rate rises have yet to impact on the property markets.
Figures released by the Department of Communities and Local Government on Monday, show that the mix-adjusted average house price in the UK in June 2007 stood at £214,222, up from £210,793 in May 2007 (not seasonally adjusted). UK annual house price inflation in June 2007 was 12.1%, up from 10.8% in May 2007. Annual house price inflation in London was 17.5% in June, up from 14.3% in May. Analysts say that the Government's figures do not reflect the latest developments in the property market, as the Department of Communities and Local Government bases its survey on the completion date of mortgages. By contrast, Halifax and others base their reports on earlier stages in the process. As a result, the DCLG's figures are considered more accurate, but lag behind other reports and will show trends later. Halifax published its house price figures for July two weeks ago, showing the fourth consecutive month that house prices have grown by less than 1.0%. Further indications that house price inflation is slowing included an increase by 1.3% between April and July, the smallest three monthly rise since August 2006. Martin Ellis, chief economist at Halifax, said: "We expect the downward trend in house price growth to continue as the five interest rate rises since last summer have an increasing impact on household spending and housing demand. Sound economic fundamentals, high levels of employment and a shortage in the number of properties available for sale, particularly in London and the South East, will, however, continue to support house prices." Mortgage approvals to fund house purchase in the three months to June (Q2) were 4% lower than in the preceding quarter, according to figures by the Bank of England. This continues the downward trend since last autumn with approvals in 2007 Q2 being 8% lower than in 2006 Q4. The level of new buyer interest in purchasing a house fell for the seventh successive month in June, indicating that potential buyers have become more cautious. Completed property sales also fell in 2007 Q2 and were 6% lower than a year ago. The increase in the proportion of borrowers taking out a fixed rate mortgage in recent years appears to have affected the timing of the housing market's response to interest rate changes, according to Halifax. As a result, house price inflation and activity are likely to take longer to slow as interest rates rise because many borrowers are only affected when their fixed rate deal matures. Over the past 18 months, nearly 70% of new mortgages have been taken out on fixed rate terms; substantially above the average of around 40% since 1993. |






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