Economy
Britons fears credit crunch fall-out Print E-mail
Tuesday, 27 November 2007
The UK working population expects the recent market turmoil due to the credit crunch, sparked by defaults in the US sub-prime sector, to have a negative affect on the UK economy.

Forty-seven per cent believe it will have a slight negative impact on the competitive position of the UK economy and 14 per cent believe it will have a significant negative impact. The figures are included in the third annual Deloitte/YouGov survey of attitudes to global economic competition, published to coincide with the 2007 CBI annual conference.

Along with anticipating knock-on effects of the recent market turmoil, the UK population feels increasingly threatened by companies’ off-shoring business operations. Thirty-seven per cent believe companies should be forced to bring jobs back to the UK, up from 32 per cent in 2006 and 22 per cent in 2005. A further 40 per cent believe moving jobs away from the UK to be a bad idea.

Biggest threat to jobs

Those working in finance and banking sector see off-shoring as the biggest threat to their jobs (41 per cent) followed by IT & Telecoms (36 per cent). Whereas the increasing numbers of workers migrating to the UK is seen as the biggest threat by those working in transport (49 per cent), retail (48 per cent) and food & agriculture (42 per cent).

John Kerr, managing partner for innovation at Deloitte, said that it is clear that recent turmoil in the financial sector and continued plans for reducing costs by off-shoring is shaking the confidence of those working in the sector.

“This is, however, also the sector where most people believe the UK will become ‘world leaders’. This can happen if UK is in a position to benefit from operations moving offshore through the reinvestment of the cost savings to develop the high value end of the business,” he added.

Over the next 5-10 years, 33 per cent believe we are most likely to become a world leader in financial services, followed by media and creativity (25 per cent), professional services (21 per cent) and the arts (21 per cent). People believe the financial services sector will also provide the best job opportunities over the next 5-10 years.

Highly skilled workforce 

Sixty-eight per cent believe investment in education is needed, in order for to maintain the UK’s competitive position.

“If the UK is to thrive as a world leader in financial and professional services and media and creativity sectors as the public predicts, a highly skilled workforce is needed. People are concerned over future skill gaps coupled with an increasingly diverse migrant work force and this brings urgency to the need for the UK to identify the key areas of potential weakness in the future and to take actions on as learning, skills and training,” Kerr added.

China is by far perceived to pose the biggest threat to the competitiveness of the UK economy over the next five years:

 2007      2006     
China    
72%
76%
USA31%
34%
Japan
25%
32%
Germany      
21%
-
Russia
19%
18%
South Korea     
18%
27%

 

 

 

 

 


David Owen, consulting partner at Deloitte, said that Asia is now the most dynamic region in the world accounting for about half of global growth. Although China is seen as the biggest challenge, other parts of Asia are also performing very strongly. Japan has broken out of a decade-long slump and India is also booming.

“The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Asia will grow by 8.0 per cent this year and 7.25 in 2008, roughly three times the likely growth rate of the US, the Euro area and the UK. As a result investors are seeing Asia as a crucial support to the global economy as the US grapples with its credit problem and the European economy flags,” Owen added.

The survey also found that 43 per cent of respondents believe that the UK’s status as a ‘global power’ is declining while 7 per cent think it is increasing. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents believe that government is responsible for the UK remaining a ‘global power’, whereas 42 per cent of respondents believe that role is reserved for business.

A surprising 72 per cent said they would relocate overseas if it would improve their quality of life. After the weather, property prices are the biggest driver for people considering moving overseas followed by the prospect of cheaper retirement costs.

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